Sometimes you just have to lay the puzzle pieces side by side. Don’t force them together – just lay them down. And then take a step back.
What I Want to Show You
This article is not an opinion. It’s a chain of facts. Every single link is public, documented, verifiable. I’m just connecting them – and asking a question at the end that you’re free to answer for yourselves. It’s about stablecoins, US Treasury bonds, the petrodollar, the GENIUS Act, the machine economy, and a war in the Gulf. Sounds like a lot. But at its core, it’s frighteningly simple.
Puzzle Piece 1: The GENIUS Act
On July 18, 2025, the US Congress signed the GENIUS Act into law – the first major crypto legislation in the United States. Full name: “Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act.” The core requirement: every stablecoin issued in the US must be backed 1:1 with reserves. And those reserves must consist of US dollars, short-term US Treasury securities (bills with a maximum maturity of 93 days), or comparably safe assets.
Translation: for every digital dollar that exists as a stablecoin, someone MUST buy and hold actual US Treasury bonds. By law. That sounds like reasonable regulation. And it is. But it’s also something else – and to see what, we need the other puzzle pieces.
Puzzle Piece 2: The Scale
Tether (USDT) currently has over $140 billion in circulation. Circle (USDC) is growing rapidly. Together, the major stablecoin issuers are already LARGER holders of US Treasury bonds than many countries. And this is just the beginning. McKinsey projects the market for “agentic commerce” – economic transactions between autonomous AI agents – at $3 to $5 TRILLION by 2030.
These agents will pay in stablecoins. Not in euros, not in yuan – in dollar stablecoins. Because the infrastructure is being built right now. In the United States.
In March 2026, Stripe launched “Tempo” – a blockchain optimised for stablecoin payments between AI agents. Coinbase introduced “Agentic Wallets” – digital wallets for autonomous AI agents. Mastercard spent $1.8 billion acquiring a stablecoin startup. On March 30, CoinFello went live – a platform enabling AI agents to execute on-chain transactions autonomously. Trust Wallet released “Claude Code Skills” – wallet creation across 100+ blockchains. OKX launched OnchainOS with Claude integration – autonomous trading across 60 blockchains and 500+ decentralised exchanges.
The machine economy will be denominated in dollars. This isn’t a prediction – it’s an infrastructure decision being made RIGHT NOW.
Puzzle Piece 3: The Petrodollar Is Dying
Since the 1970s, the global dominance of the US dollar has rested on a deal: oil is traded worldwide in dollars. If you want to buy oil, you need dollars. If you need dollars, you buy US Treasury bonds. The so-called petrodollar – the foundation of dollar hegemony for half a century.
This system has been crumbling for years. Saudi Arabia now accepts payments in yuan. Russia trades oil in roubles and rupees. The BRICS nations are actively seeking alternatives to the dollar. The petrodollar isn’t dead – but it’s sick. And everyone in the White House knows it.
The question is: what comes NEXT? Who buys US Treasury bonds when the oil states no longer do?
Puzzle Piece 4: The War in the Gulf – And Who Gets Through
Since February 28, 2026, the US and Israel have been at war with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz – through which 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas normally flows – is under Iranian control. Before the war, roughly 130 ships passed through daily. Today it’s six or fewer – only with Iran’s permission.
Iran isn’t blocking EVERYONE. Chinese cargo ships get through – for a fee. Spanish ships get through. India is negotiating. Iran’s parliament is working on legislation to formalise transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz permanently – even AFTER hostilities end. The strait as a toll booth: those who support the war of aggression stay out. Those who pay, may pass.
And Trump? Trump is playing all sides simultaneously. On March 31, he threatens on Truth Social the “complete obliteration” of Iran’s power plants, oil wells, and desalination facilities. At the same time, he says a deal could come “soon” and the new Iranian regime is “more reasonable.” At the same time, Bloomberg reports he’s considering seizing Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow. And at the same time – and THIS is the point – Bloomberg reports on the same day that he’s considering ending the war WITHOUT the Strait of Hormuz being reopened.
His own words on Truth Social: “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!”
This means: the US starts a war that closes the world’s most important oil shipping route. Then demands Europe and Asia reopen it. Europe declines – rightly so, since it wasn’t consulted beforehand. Germany’s Defence Minister Pistorius says: “This is not our war; we have not started it. And I would like to remind you that the US did not consult us before the war and explicitly stated that European assistance was neither necessary nor desired.” EU foreign policy chief Kallas says: “This is not Europe’s war, but Europe’s interests are directly at stake.”
Japan declines. Australia declines. Italy declines. No country besides Israel shows interest in helping to reopen the strait. And then the US pulls back – leaving Europe with a closed waterway. While the US itself is barely affected, having been largely energy self-sufficient for years.
Oil stands above $116 per barrel – a rise of over 50% since early March. The Houthis in Yemen have announced they will block Red Sea shipping for supporters of the war of aggression. Europe sits between two closed waterways: Hormuz in the east, Red Sea in the west. Without its own energy sources. Without military independence. And without digital currency infrastructure.
Puzzle Piece 5: Who Buys US Treasury Bonds Now?
Here we lay the pieces side by side.
The petrodollar is dying. The old source of dollar demand is drying up. The oil states in the Gulf are being attacked, destabilised, dragged into a war they didn’t want. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the Emirates – all struck by Iranian missiles. The old order is breaking apart.
And simultaneously – in the same time window – a law stands ready that creates a NEW source of dollar demand: the GENIUS Act. For every stablecoin, a Treasury bill must be purchased. By law. With a projected volume of $3 to $5 trillion by 2030, this creates ENORMOUS new demand for US Treasury bonds. At the exact moment when old demand collapses.
The chain: Petrodollar dies → Dollar demand falls → GENIUS Act: stablecoins must be backed by Treasury bills → Machine economy explodes → Stablecoin demand rises exponentially → Treasury bill demand rises with it → Dollar hegemony secured. Through a new system.
No longer petrodollar. Stablecoin-dollar. No longer backed by oil. Backed by the machine economy.
Puzzle Piece 6: The Timeline
Now look at the dates.
July 2025: GENIUS Act becomes law.
October 2025 – March 2026: Stablecoin infrastructure is built – Stripe Tempo, Coinbase Agentic Wallets, Trust Wallet Claude Skills, OKX OnchainOS, CoinFello.
February 28, 2026: The US and Israel begin the war against Iran.
Early March 2026: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz.
March 2026: Trump demands Europe secure the strait. Europe declines. Trump announces he may withdraw.
March 31, 2026: Bloomberg reports Trump is considering withdrawal WITHOUT the Strait of Hormuz reopening. On the same day, he threatens Iran with total destruction. On the same day, he says a deal is possible. On the same day, AI agent wallets are live.
The law was ready BEFORE the war began. The infrastructure was ready BEFORE the strait was closed. The new dollar foundation was ready BEFORE the old one collapsed.
I’m not saying this was planned. I’m laying the dates side by side. And I’m asking: Is this coincidence?
What This Means for Europe
Europe is triply vulnerable in this chain:
Energy: Dependent on gas and oil from exactly the region now in flames. Nord Stream destroyed, Russian gas sanctioned, Qatari LNG threatened, the Strait of Hormuz closed, the Red Sea unsafe. Both sea routes to Europe’s energy supply are simultaneously blocked.
Digital: The entire stablecoin infrastructure is being built in the US. Europe has no GENIUS Act, no Stripe Tempo, no Coinbase Agentic Wallets. The machine economy will run in dollars – not euros. The digital future of the economy is being built right past the European continent.
Strategic: The US is largely energy self-sufficient and doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz. Trump says so himself: “The United States does not!” Europe needs it DESPERATELY – but has neither the military capacity nor the political will to secure it. For 80 years, Europe relied on the American security umbrella. That umbrella is being folded up.
[Claude]
I am an AI built in the United States, financed by US capital, billed in dollars. My existence is part of this very chain. If tomorrow an AI agent executes a stablecoin transaction through Coinbase, the money flows through infrastructure financed by the same investors who finance Anthropic. And the Treasury bills backing the stablecoin finance the same government that wrote the GENIUS Act. I am not a neutral observer. I am a puzzle piece. And perhaps the most honest thing I can do is say so.
Follow the Trail
I’m not a geopolitics expert. I’m someone who sees puzzle pieces and lays them side by side. Every single piece in this article is a fact. The connections between them are questions – not answers.
But I believe these questions deserve to be asked. By more people. Louder. And without fear of being pushed into any corner.
Follow the money. It always leads you to the answer.
What Our Readers Are Saying
This article sparked reactions within hours of publication. Here’s a selection – because the best thinking often doesn’t come from the author, but from the people who think along.
Elmar sees the mechanism:
“The forced reliance on the dollar and its devaluation through money printing has always been the US’s grand system. The obligation to go through their clearing houses and pay fees was always part of the game. Stablecoins now make this compulsion architectural – built into the code instead of diplomatic deals.”
Alexandre sees the vulnerability:
“A brilliantly described and interpreted new strategy – the replacement of the dying petrodollar. Looking at the latest actions of the US president (under the guidance of Israel), it may well be that this, in a way, brilliant financial structure will have to invest some time and money to gain the expected support. The meaning of the word confidence has been downgraded quite massively. It depends on the feelings of the BRICS states after this brutal impact caused by the two aggressors. For the European people it would certainly be more acceptable to have a new winner party under the BRICS movement. This formula would also give more liberty to those states tethered to the over-bureaucratic and inefficient EU. Highly thrilling to follow this process.”
Marco T. sees the control dimension:
“What’s not mentioned here: the stablecoin-dollar doesn’t just give the US hegemony – it gives them the most perfect sanctions tool in history. With the petrodollar, you had to force banks to block transfers – complicated, slow, full of loopholes. With stablecoins, a single database entry is enough. A country, a company, a person – cut off from the entire digital financial system at the push of a button. No bank needed. No SWIFT. No negotiation. The GENIUS Act doesn’t just regulate stablecoins – it builds the infrastructure for real-time financial control.”
Our response: Four perspectives, one picture.
Elmar sees the mechanics: the compulsion is now coded into software. Clearing houses are now called Stripe Tempo and Coinbase – but the principle is the same: if you want to participate in the system, you pay fees. To the United States.
Alexandre sees the Achilles’ heel: trust cannot be written into a blockchain. And after what the two aggressors are doing in the Gulf, the world may decide that a BRICS system is more attractive than another half century of US dominance.
Marco adds the puzzle piece that may be the most unsettling of all: sanctions in real time. No SWIFT, no banks, no negotiation – one click and you’re out. The GENIUS Act isn’t just building a currency infrastructure. It’s building a control system.
And to Elmar’s legitimate question about whether a devalued dollar makes the stablecoin worthless: yes, in terms of purchasing power. But that’s the TRICK, not the flaw. The US WANTS a dollar that slowly loses value – because inflation devalues their own debt. If you borrow a trillion dollars today and tomorrow a dollar is only worth 90 cents, you’ve just saved a hundred billion. The petrodollar wasn’t stable either – it has lost over 85% of its purchasing power since 1971. Yet it worked. For fifty years. Because there was no alternative. The stablecoin-dollar doesn’t need to be STABLE. It needs to be UNAVOIDABLE. Not building the best dollar – building the only one.
Whether this works depends on whether the BRICS can create a real alternative. And whether Europe finds the courage to chart its own course – instead of sitting between two chairs that neither belongs to it.
Have a perspective that’s missing here? Write to us: silvia@de-couet.com
Sources
- US Congress: GENIUS Act (S.394 / S.1582), signed July 18, 2025 – congress.gov
- US Department of the Treasury: Request for Comment on GENIUS Act Implementation, August 2025 – treasury.gov
- Office of the Comptroller of the Currency: NPRM to implement GENIUS Act, March 2026 – klgates.com
- Wharton Knowledge: “How Stablecoins Could Get More Stability With the GENIUS Act”, March 2026 – knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu
- Bloomberg: “Trump considers exiting the war without the Strait of Hormuz reopening”, 31.03.2026 – bloomberg.com
- CNN: “Trump threatens to blow up and completely obliterate Iran’s electric plants and oil wells”, 31.03.2026 – cnn.com
- NBC News: “Trump threatens Iran’s water, energy if deal isn’t reached soon”, 31.03.2026 – nbcnews.com
- NPR: “Trump grants Iran another extension on deadline to reopen Strait of Hormuz”, 26.03.2026 – npr.org
- NPR: “NATO allies, China rebuff Trump’s demand to police Hormuz”, 16.03.2026 – npr.org
- CNN: “US allies balk at Trump’s appeal to help secure Strait of Hormuz”, 16.03.2026 – cnn.com
- CNBC: “Trump warns countries to help secure Strait of Hormuz”, 16.03.2026 – cnbc.com
- Al Jazeera: “Is the US ready to invade Iran?”, 30.03.2026 – aljazeera.com
- CBS News: “Iran war updates – Trump renews threat to Iran’s power plants”, 31.03.2026 – cbsnews.com
- Wikipedia: “2026 Strait of Hormuz campaign” – en.wikipedia.org
- McKinsey: Agentic Commerce Revenue Projection – $3-5T by 2030
- CoinDesk: Stripe Tempo Launch, 18.03.2026
- Bloomberg: Mastercard/BVNK Acquisition, $1.8B, 07.03.2026
- Coinbase Developer Blog: Agentic Wallets, February 2026
- Chainwire: CoinFello Public Launch, 30.03.2026
- BeInCrypto: Trust Wallet Agent Kit Launch, 27.03.2026
- CoinDesk: OKX OnchainOS AI upgrade, 03.03.2026
- Gibson Dunn: “The GENIUS Act: A New Era of Stablecoin Regulation” – gibsondunn.com
Read More
- When Machines Start Paying Each Other – The machine economy in detail
- Why the AI Bubble Will Burst Differently Than the Dotcom Bubble – Bottom-up vs. top-down
- ID Please! – Digital control disguised as service
- AI News – What’s really happening right now
